Last updated on 22 May, 2020, 20:18:03 EST.

La version française de ce contenu sera publiée sous peu.

Current of forecast hospital use for COVID-19 patients in the Ottawa area. Created by the team behind ProjectBigLife.ca at the Ottawa Hospital and the University of Ottawa with input and data from Ottawa Public Health.

NOTE: Observed hospitalization data from Ottawa Public Health is now being used as the Ottawa COVID-19 Database is now released.

Dashboard

Data to May 21, 2020

Current

43 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Including: 42 acute care patients. 2 ICU patients.

64% physical distance effectiveness (approximate).

Short-range forecast

Fewer patients in the following week, reflecting a current halving time of 31 days (daily growth of -2%).

Long-range forecast

50 to 1000 peak patients in The Ottawa Hospital between June 2020 & Aug 2020.

Observed hospital census

Hospital census halving time of 31 days translates to current physical distancing effectiveness of approximately 64%.

Hospital census is the count of patients in all Ottawa hospitals at midnight on the previous day.

Doubling time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to double in number.

Halving time is the time it takes to halve the number of hospitalized patients. Doubling/halving time was calculated for each 7 day period (Mon-Sun).

Observed daily hospital admissions

Peak hospitalization projections

The forecast of 50 patients in hospital in June 2020 is based on the previous weeks’ physical distancing effectiveness of 64%.

Physical distancing is the reduction in close contact between people.

Physical distancing effectiveness is the amount that people without COVID-19 stay away from people who are infectious with COVID-19, compared to the time before COVID-19 control measures.

See More page for more information about physical distancing effectiveness.

Hospitalization projections

Daily projections

Ventilator projections

Daily projections

Death visualization

Note: The number of deaths in the last 3-5 days may not reflect the actual number of COVID-19 deaths as case investigations are ongoing to determine earliest onset date.